The Accuracy of Students' Predictions of Their GCSE Grades

Autor/inn/en	Attwood, Gaynor; Croll, Paul; Fuller, Carol; Last, Kathryn
Titel	The Accuracy of Students' Predictions of Their GCSE Grades
Quelle	In: Educational Studies, 39 (2013) 4, S.444-454 (11 Seiten)Infoseite zur Zeitschrift PDF als Volltext Verfügbarkeit
Sprache	englisch
Dokumenttyp	gedruckt; online; Zeitschriftenaufsatz
ISSN	0305-5698
DOI	10.1080/03055698.2013.776945
Schlagwörter	Accuracy; Prediction; Predictive Validity; Exit Examinations; Self Concept; Questionnaires; Self Evaluation (Individuals); Academic Achievement; Achievement Rating; Gender Differences; Intellectual Disciplines; Academic Aspiration; Secondary School Students; Foreign Countries; Grade 10; United Kingdom (England) + Suchen Sie Ihr Suchwort? Vorhersage; Final examination; Abschlussprüfung; Selbstkonzept; Fragebogen; Schulleistung; Achievement; Rating; Leistung; Beurteilung; Leistungsbeurteilung; Geschlechterkonflikt; Geisteswissenschaften; Sekundarschüler; Ausland
Abstract	The paper reports a study that investigated the relationship between students' self-predicted and actual General Certificate of Secondary Education results in order to establish the extent of over-and under-prediction and whether this varies by subject and across genders and socio-economic groupings. It also considered the relationship between actual and predicted attainment and attitudes towards going to university. The sample consisted of 109 young people in two schools being followed up from an earlier study. Just over 50% of predictions were accurate and students were much more likely to over-predict than to under-predict. Most errors of prediction were only one grade out and may reflect examination unreliability as well as student misperceptions. Girls were slightly less likely than boys to over-predict but there were no differences associated with social background. Higher levels of attainment, both actual and predicted, were strongly associated with positive attitudes to university. Differences between predictions and results are likely to reflect examination errors as well as pupil errors. There is no evidence that students from more advantaged social backgrounds over-estimate themselves compared with other students, although boys over-estimate themselves compared with girls. (As Provided).
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Erfasst von	ERIC (Education Resources Information Center), Washington, DC
Update	2017/4/10